What is a risk-free bet?

A risk-free bet is usually a first-bet insurance promo.

The sportsbook lets you place a real-money bet. If it wins, you keep the profit. If it loses, they refund you as a free bet or bonus bet.

The important bit is this: the refund is not the same as cash.

A $100 refund as a free bet might only be worth $60 to $75 once you convert it properly. That is why the calculator asks for a retention rate.

Why the hedge matters

If you place the sportsbook bet on its own, you are still relying on the result.

The better approach is to cover the other side with a hedge bet.

That way, you can compare both paths before you place anything:

• If Bet 1 wins, your sportsbook bet pays out and the hedge loses.
• If Bet 1 loses, the hedge wins and the sportsbook refund has value.

The calculator sizes the hedge so both outcomes land as close together as possible after the refund value is included.

What retention rate should you use?

Retention rate means how much of the refund you expect to convert into real cash.

If you receive a $100 free bet and expect to convert it into $70 cash, your retention rate is 70%.

For stake-not-returned free bet refunds, 60% to 75% is a sensible working range. If you are not sure, start with 65%.

How to use this calculator

Add your real-money stake as Bet 1. Add the odds for that bet, then add the refund value and the retention rate.

Then add the hedge odds for the other side.

The calculator shows the hedge stake, total bet amount, refund value and profit if either side wins.

New to this? Read the sportsbook sign-up offers guide first. It explains how these welcome promos work before you start placing them.

Related calculators

• Free bet calculator for converting the refund once it lands
• Lay bet calculator for back and lay setups
• Arbitrage calculator for price gaps between two books